The Signal and the Noise

This item is sold out

To view similar items click here.

Free Delivery on this purchase

The Signal and the Noise

Nate Silver

Publisher: Penguin Books Ltd

Format: Paperback

In this enthralling insider's tour of the high-stakes world of forecasting, Nate Silver reveals how we can all learn to make better predictions in our own lives. Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the global financial crisis to 9/11 to the Fukushima disaster, we routinely fail to foresee hugely significant events, often at great cost to society. In The Signal and the Noise, the New York Times political forecaster Nate Silver explores the art of prediction, revealing how we can all develop better foresight in an unpredictable world. In his quest to build a more accurate crystal ball, Silver visits hundreds of expert forecasters in a range of areas, from the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to the economy, and studies what lies behind their success. What can we learn from their techniques? What patterns have they uncovered? And in a world of Big Data, are we getting any closer to the truth? As Silver discovers, most predictions fail because humans are wired to detect patterns, and we often mistake noisy data for a signal.By analysing the rare prescient forecasts, and applying a more quantitative lens to everyday life, Silver distils the essential lessons of prediction, from the importance of embracing uncertainty to the need to think small. In the course of his investigation, Silver discovers unexpected patterns and connections, such as what earthquake detection can teach us about terrorist attacks, and how the insights of an 18th century English mathematician help unlock the 21st century challenges of global warming and disease.

GST Note: GST is included in the price of this item. GST is included in the freight.

Customer Reviews



Delivery time frames will depend on your location, please check the shipping calculator to see an estimate of when you can typically expect to receive your goods based on your postcode.

Loading content...
Loading content...

Sign Up Now

Sign up to receive upcoming auctions & special offers!

Privacy Statement and Consent: By providing your email address, you consent to us sending you our newsletters as well as promotional material, updates and further information about our products and services. Our Privacy Policy contains information about how you can access and correct your personal information, how to make a complaint, and how we deal with complaints.


Follow Us

We Accept

Follow Us


NSW Liquor Act 2007 - It is against the law to sell or supply alcohol to or to obtain on behalf of a person under the age of 18 years.
NSW Liquor Licence LIQP770010049
Motor Dealer Licence: NSW MD13910, VIC LMCT11156, SA MVD277714, QLD 1700072, WA MD25136. NSW Motor Vehicle Recycler Licence: M057736

Download Our App